Cyberpunk is most probably the most anticipated game
release in the gaming community. The enormous
success of The Witcher 3 has aroused the hopes of players for a new great series, this time
in a futuristic setting. The same, or dare I say higher level of anticipation
can be seen among investors hoping for a possibility of high profits. This is being
reflected in multiple in developer's share prices over the past few years,
which led to a position among the most valuable company in the entire Polish
stock exchange[1],
coming ahead of such Polish giants as: insurance company PZU, oil giant PKN
Orlen or KGHM one of the largest silver and copper producers around the world.
The aim of the paper is to find Cyberpunk 2077's sales expectations,
which are reflected in the share price. The article consists of four parts. At the beginning
briefly describes the current activities of CD Projekt comparisons with the
world's largest developers. Next, I present the listed AAA games companies with basic financial data and stock market multipliers of these
companies. This information will be used to determine future multipliers valued
company. In the next step, I build CD Projekt's revenues model. Based on the assumptions, I create an revenue model which is the basis of the valuation. The
revenue model with multipliers is used to create a multiplier valuation. In conclusion,
I confront my Cyberpunk 's sales expectations with the revenues of the
best-earning games in 2019 and the sales of the most popular games
in recent years.
Introduction
10th of December 2020 has been set as release one of the most
anticipated games of recent years will be released. The following post aims to
demonstrate how investors evaluate the possible sale of Cyberpunk 2077. Such
considerations are possible because CD Projekt's business model, unlike other
large developers, focuses on producing one game at a time.
CD Projekt Red is one of the world's most famous producers of AAA, games
with the highest budgets, sold on the largest platforms (PlayStation,
Xbox, PC, etc.) The scale of its popularity is best showcased by the number
of likes on official profiles in social media. The table below shows the number
of likes for on official account of each developer.
Table 1.
Number of likes on official page in social media in mln.
|
Facebook |
Instagram |
Twitter |
Activision
Blizzard |
4.4 |
1.2 |
2.5 |
Electronic
Arts |
4.5 |
3.1 |
5.9 |
Ubisoft
Entertainment |
5.7 |
6.5 |
8.1 |
CD Projekt
Red |
0.41 |
0.66 |
0.51 |
Source:
Official Accounts of Individual Developers [accessed November 17, 2020].
CD Projekt,
unlike its competitors, Table 1, does not have a large number of titles in its
portfolio. The following table shows the most
important releases of developers in 2020, but it is worth noting that the above
companies have several premiers each year, while in the case of CD Projekt Red, its latest
projects are:
- The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt (2015) with
additions: Heart of Stone (2015) and Blood and Wine (2016)
- Gwent The
Witcher Card Game (2018)
Table 2.
Selected release of the largest listed developers in 2020
Company |
LTM Revenue (mln euro) |
LTM |
Release in 2020 |
Activision Blizzard |
6 523,3 |
30.09.2020 |
Call of Duty: Cold War,
World of Warcraft: Shadowlands, Call of Duty: Warzone |
Electronic Arts |
4 760,4 |
30.09.2020 |
NBA Live 21, EA Sports
UFC 4, NHL 21, FIFA 21, Madden 21, |
Ubisoft Entertainment |
1 654,3 |
30.09.2020 |
Watch Dogs: Legion,
Imortals Fenyx Rising, Just Dance 2021, Assassin's Creed Valhalla, Tom
Clancy's The Division 2 |
CD Projekt Red |
150,7 |
30.06.2020 |
Cyberpunk 2077 |
Source:www.gameby.pl/premiery-ubisoft-2020,
www.thegamer.com/every-announced-ea-game-coming-2020, www.activision.com,
[accessed November 17, 2020].
The single CD Projekt
release looks modest, but it should be remembered that it is often considered
the most anticipated game of the year, coming before such titles as mentioned in the table and e.g. The
Last of Us or Doom Eternal.
Comparable entities
To calculate the value of the enterprise using comparable methods,
companies involved in the production of AAA games should be selected. The second
criterion is listing on
the stock exchange, which allows you to obtain information about multiplier.
The table below shows 8 listed companies developing AAA games
Table 3. Listed companies developing AAA games.
Company Name |
Country |
Business Description |
Activision Blizzard, Inc. |
United
States |
The
company’s key product franchises include Call of Duty, World of Warcraft,
Diablo, Hearthstone, Overwatch, and Candy Crush. |
Codemasters Group Holdings plc |
United
Kingdom |
The
company’s game portfolio comprise F1 series, GRID, DiRT Rally 2.0, and
ONRUSH. |
Electronic Arts Inc |
United
States |
The
company develops and publishes games and services across various genres
primarily under the Battlefield, The Sims, Apex Legends, Need for Speed, and
Plants v. Zombies brands; and license games from others, including FIFA,
Madden NFL, and Star Wars brands. |
Embracer Group AB (publ) |
Sweden |
The
company’s game catalogue consists of 190 tittles, such as Saints Row, Goat
Simulator, Dead Island, Darksiders, Metro, MX vs ATV, Kingdoms of Amalur,
TimeSplitters, Satisfactory, Wreckfest, Insurgency, World War Z, and others.
The company was formerly known as THQ Nordic AB (publ) and changed its name
to Embracer Group AB (publ) in October 2019. |
Paradox Interactive AB (publ) |
Sweden |
The
company game portfolio comprises a lot of titles and brands, including
Stellaris, Europa Universalis, Hearts of Iron, Crusader Kings, Cities:
Skylines, Surviving Mars, Prison Architect, Magicka, Age of Wonders, and the
World of Darkness. |
Square Enix Holdings Co., Ltd. |
Japan |
The
company’s game catalogue consists a lot of games, for instance, such as Final Fantasy
Series, Dragon Quest, Kingdom Hearts, Tomb Raider and Deus Ex. The company
publishes, distributes, and licenses entertainment content under the SQUARE
ENIX and TAITO brands. |
Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. |
United
States |
The
company offers its products under the Rockstar Games and 2K labels. It
develops and publishes action/adventure products under the Grand Theft Auto,
Max Payne, Midnight Club, and Red Dead Redemption names. The company also
develops brands in other genres, including the LA Noire, Bully, Manhunt
franchises. In addition, the company publishes various such as the BioShock,
Mafia, Sid Meier's Civilization, XCOM series, and Borderlands. Further, it
publishes sports simulation titles comprising NBA 2K series,; the WWE 2K
professional wrestling series. |
Ubisoft Entertainment SA |
France |
The
company designs and develops software, including scenarios, layouts, and game
rules, as well as develops design tools and game engines. Ubisoft
Entertainment SA has a strategic partnership with Tencent. |
Source:
Entities’ websites
CD Projekt's current financial results cannot be compared to the current
ratios of comparable companies, because the main driving force behind the
quotation of CD Projekt shares are investors' expectations regarding for the popularity
of the upcoming game. The table below presents the basic financial data and multipliers. We will use the median
in all of the calculations below.
Table 4. Basic financial data of comparable companies
Company
Name |
Market
Capitalization (mln
eur) |
Total Enterprise Value (mln
eur) |
LTM
Revenue (mln eur) |
LTM
EBIT (mln eur) |
LTM
EBITDA (mln eur) |
LTM Net Income (mln eur) |
TEV/LTM Revenues (x) |
TEV/LTM EBITDA (x) |
P/EPS
(x) |
Activision
Blizzard, Inc. |
50 681.1 |
47 300.4 |
6 523.3 |
2 269.5 |
2 468.8 |
1 884.6 |
7,3x |
19,3x |
27,2x |
Codemasters
Group Holdings plc |
806.3 |
779.8 |
86.2 |
19.6 |
23.4 |
13.1 |
9,21x |
33,2x |
59,4x |
Electronic
Arts Inc |
29 631.0 |
25 578.9 |
4 760.4 |
1 178.6 |
1 308.9 |
1 119.0 |
5,41x |
18,3x |
26,9x |
Embracer
Group AB (publ) |
7 095.2 |
7 018.4 |
673.2 |
44.5 |
164.3 |
30.8 |
10,2x |
41,5x |
175,1x |
Paradox
Interactive AB (publ) |
2 861.8 |
2 820.6 |
146.1 |
57.9 |
66.0 |
46.5 |
19,0x |
40,5x |
60,6x |
Square Enix Holdings Co., Ltd. |
5 292.0 |
4 210.7 |
2 523.1 |
391.6 |
452.2 |
213.4 |
1,71x |
9,56x |
25,4x |
Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. |
14 979.5 |
13 114.1 |
2 864.0 |
441.2 |
503.0 |
403.8 |
4,61x |
24,9x |
39,2x |
Ubisoft
Entertainment SA |
9 812.5 |
10 255.3 |
1 654.3 |
113.4 |
(15.3) |
(105.4) |
6,2x |
NM |
NM |
CD Projekt
S.A. |
7 740.7
|
7 613.0
|
150.7
|
62.2 |
63.5 |
60.8 |
51,0x |
120,1x |
135,4x |
Source:
www.investing.com, financial statement of the entities.
The table below shows the values of the multipliers, the multipliers used are based on the historical data from Table 4.
Table 5. Multipliers
|
EV/Revenue |
EV/EBITDA |
P/E |
NTM |
6,0x |
20,0x |
30,0x |
FY+1 |
5,7x |
18,5x |
28,0x |
FY+2 |
5,3x |
17,0x |
26,0x |
Source: Own
study
In the model,
I assumed a minimal decrease in the value of multipliers in the following
years, which is to simulate the gradual maturation of the gaming market. I
encourage you to use the spreadsheet attached to the post, which allows you to
modify the assumptions.
Assumptions
To calculate the value of the company based on future performance, the need to create financial model. For this, we must make some assumptions that will help us build the foundations for further consideration. The following sections present the assumptions of the income model.
1. Cyberpunk price
The price on the newest consoles will be EUR 69.99 (PS 5 and Xbox Series
X), on older consoles the price will equal EUR 59.90 (PS 4 and Xbox One), and
on PC the price will be EUR 49.99. Due to the pricing policy, the price of the
game will drop by 10% after 12 months from the release and another 15% after
another year.
2.
Selling costs
The price of the game in the store is not fully transferred to the game producer, therefore the cost of the sales platform should be subtracted from its price, the industry standard is 30%[2]. The model assumes a 30% reduction in the case of copies intended for consoles and a 20% reduction in the case of copies on a PC. reduction is due to the possibility of selling through its own platform (GOG.com) and the actions of EPIC Games Store, which by aggressive policy lowers costs on the developer's side. In the physical distribution due to higher costs (transport, storage, complaints, etc.), the developer will receive 50% of the original price.
3.
Cyberpunk 2077 revenues
The financial report for 2019 includes a chart with the breakdown of
revenues by platform.
Chart 1. Distribution of The Witcher 3 revenue
In the chart above in the report, we see a huge increase in digital distribution compared to physical distribution in recent years. Currently, over 80% of sales are generated through digital distribution channels.
The model assumes that in the next 12 months, half of the sales will be coming from sales on the PC, but in the following years, consoles will have an advantage, which in 2023 will reach 60% of total revenues. It should be noted, however that in 2020 saw the release of the newest generation of gaming consoles. The model assumed that in the first year only 40% of the copies of the game will be sold to the newest-generation consoles, but in 2023 the latest consoles will take over 90% console sale. It should also distinguish between the distribution of games in two models: the digital and the physical. According to the CD Projekt management report for 2019, 80% of copies of the Witcher 3 were sold via digital platforms. The model assumes further growth of digital distribution to 90% in 2023, further growth will be difficult, because some players like to have physical copies (as in the case of music).
The table below presents the estimated sales structure for the available platforms for 2021-2023
Table 6.
Estimated sales structure for the available platforms for 2021-2023
|
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
PC |
50,0% |
45,0% |
40,0% |
PlayStation 4 |
18,0% |
6,5% |
3,5% |
Xbox One |
12,0% |
4,5% |
2,5% |
PlayStation 5 |
12,0% |
26,0% |
31,5% |
Xbox Series X |
8,0% |
18,0% |
22,5% |
Source: Own
study
The above table allows you to calculate the average revenue from the
sale of one copy of the game. The table below presents the revenue
from the sale of one copy of the game in the years 2021 – 2023.
Table 7.
Revenue from the sale of one copy of Cyberpunk 2077.
|
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
Average
revenue per game |
33,90 € |
36,52 € |
31,16 € |
Source: Own
study
4.
Other income
The model assumes that the company will generate revenues from three additional sources: GOG.
com, micropayments in Cyberpunk 2077 and related to the Witcher series and the
side game Gwent.
a.
GOG.com revenues
It was assumed
that in the next three years GOG.com will generate revenues of EUR 40 million
annually, this value coincides with the results of GOG for the last few years.
b.
Witcher and Gwent revenues
Another source
of revenues for the company related to the Witcher and Gwent series, assumed
that revenues for the next 12 months would be similar to 2019 (53 million euros) and in the next
two years they would decline by a quarter each year.
c.
Micropayments in Cyberpunk 2077
The last
source of income is the most controversial and strongly influences the final
result. Micropayments are an extremely interesting source for
generating financial flows. The successes of online games show how profitable
this financial model can be[3].
The value of revenues from micropayments is directly related to the popularity
of the game and the ability to monetize on player activity. Press information shows that the developers plan to use micropayments in the
multiplayer system, while the experience with such model used in Gwent
is a big plus[4].
It is assumed
that a single copy will generate 2.5 euros per year in
micropayments, a value similar to the estimated value of micropayments per
player for GTA V. The table below shows the calculation of the micropayment
value per gamer in GTA V. The planned release of the multiplayer is 2020. In the first year of forecasts do not take into account those.
Table 8.
Micropayments in GTA V in 2019
Average sales in 2017-19 (mln) |
15 |
Revenue
per unit to developers (usd) |
$21,00 |
GTA
V sales revenue in 2019 (mln usd) |
315 |
GTA
V micropayments (mln usd) |
$280 |
Copy
sold by the end 2019 (mln usd) |
115 |
Micropayments
per copy (usd) |
$2,43 |
Source: www.statista.com/statistics/1097608/gta-v-unit-sales-worldwide, www.tweaktown.com/news/69666/gta-made-half-billion-dollars-2019-3-best-earning-game/index.html,
www.tweaktown.com/news/69666/gta-made-half-billion-dollars-2019-3-best-earning-game/index.html
[accesed 29 november 2020].
CD ProjectRed will generate revenues
from those three sources. The table below shows this
summary.
Table 9.
Calculation of other revenues in 2021-2023 (in mln euro)
|
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
GOG.com revenue |
40 |
40 |
40 |
Revenue
from the Witcher series |
53 |
40 |
30 |
Micropayments
revenue(mln eur/year) |
0 |
113 |
150 |
Total other revenue |
93 |
192 |
220 |
Source: Own
study
5.
Any new release of the "big" game by the end
of 2023 years
All
calculations in this article are based on the assumption that no next AAA game
will be released by the end of 2023. Naturally, the model assumes the
possibility of releasing paid add-ons, as in the case of The Witcher 3.
According to the media, the next game will be another part of The Witcher, and
its release will probably take place in the years 2024-2025[5].
Calculation
According to markets and financial data, CD Projekt's total enterprise
value (TEV[6])
was approximately EUR 7,6 billion and we will compare the
sale forecast of the game to this amount. The multipliers used for the
comparison with Enterprise Value (EV) will be adjusted for net debt. Net debt
is the difference between financial liabilities and cash. In the model, we use
data on net debt from the latest report for the first half of 2020.
In addition to the multipliers based on revenues, the text uses multipliers
based on EBITDA and net profit, to make the company's results more probable,
the company's ratios from 2015-17, i.e. from the period when The Witcher 3
and its additions had its release, were used.
Table 10. CD
Projekt's margins in 2015-2017.
|
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
EBITDA margin |
53,4% |
52,4% |
52,5% |
Net profit margin |
42,9% |
42,9% |
43,2% |
Source: CD Projekt S.A. Financial statement
Thanks to all the information in the article, we can move on to the
final valuation. All data contained in the article are speculative and cannot
be treated as an investment recommendation. In the attachment, a spreadsheet
has been added that allows you to modify the assumptions yourself.
To calculate the value of the company, we need to calculate the
following variables:
1. Revenue
The huge expectations of investors allow us to compare with what is
probably the highest-grossing game of recent years: GTA V, according to
available data, within three years of its release, the game has sold 60 million
copies (32.5 million in 2013, 12.5 million in 2014 and 15 million in 2015[7]).
The following data and previous assumptions allow the company to create the
following revenue model:
Table 11. CD
Projekt's Revenue model
Number of copies (thou.) |
32 500 |
12 500 |
15 000 |
Average
revenue per one copy |
33,90 € |
36,52 € |
31,16 € |
Cyberpunk 2077 revenue (mln Euro) |
1 102 € |
457 € |
467 € |
Micropayments
revenue (mln
euro/year) |
0 € |
113 € |
150 € |
GOG.com
revenue (mln euro) |
40 € |
40 € |
40 € |
Other revenue (mln euro) |
53 € |
40 € |
30 € |
Total
other revenue (mln euro) |
93 € |
192 € |
220 € |
Cyberpunk revenue (mln euro) |
1 102 € |
569 € |
617 € |
Total revenue (mln euro) |
1 195 € |
649 € |
687 € |
Total
number of copies (thou.) |
60 000 |
|
|
Source: Own study
2. Valuation using
multipliers
The multiplier valuation is presented in the tables below.
Table 12.
Implied enterprise value with the EV / Revenue multiplier
|
NTM |
FY+1 |
FY+2 |
Revenue |
1 195 |
649 |
687 |
Multiplier |
6,0x |
5,7x |
5,3x |
Valuation value |
7 168 |
3 665 |
3 643 |
Weight |
1/3 |
1/3 |
1/3 |
Weighted
average value of the valuation |
4 825 |
Source: Own study
Table 13.
Implied enterprise value with the EV / EBITDA multiplier
|
NTM |
FY+1 |
FY+2 |
Revenue |
1 195 |
649 |
687 |
EBITDA margin |
53,4% |
52,4% |
52,5% |
EBITDA |
638 |
340 |
361 |
Multiplier |
20,0x |
18,5x |
17,0x |
Valuation value |
12 758 |
6 291 |
6 139 |
Weight |
1/3 |
1/3 |
1/3 |
Weighted
average value of the valuation |
8 396 |
Source: Own study
Table 14.
Implied enterprise value with the P/E multiplier
|
NTM |
FY+1 |
FY+2 |
Revenue |
1 195 |
649 |
687 |
Net profit margin |
42,9% |
42,9% |
43,2% |
Net profit |
513 |
278 |
297 |
Multiplier |
30,0x |
28,0x |
26,0x |
Valuation value |
15 380 |
7 793 |
7 726 |
Weight |
1/3 |
1/3 |
1/3 |
Weighted
average value of the valuation |
10 300 |
Source: Own study
3. Final valuation
Table 15. CD
Projekt valuation
Multiplier |
EV/Revenue |
EV/EBITDA |
P/E |
Implied Enterprise Value |
4 825 |
8 396 |
10 300 |
Net debt |
-129 |
-129 |
- |
Valuation value |
4 954 |
8 525 |
10 300 |
Weight |
1/3 |
1/3 |
1/3 |
Weighted
average value |
7 926 |
Source: Own study
Table 15.
Share price
Company value (mln eur) |
7 926 |
Shares number (in mln) |
96,12 |
Share price (in eur) |
82,46 |
Source: Own study
This means that if the sales of Cyberpunk 2077 will be
at the level of GTA V sales in the first three years from the release, the value of the shares
will be slightly over 85 EUR (approx. 360 PLN), i.e. the value oscillating
around the last quotations.
Conclusion
The above article, aims to find investors' expectations for the sale of Cyberpunk 2077 within three years of its release. To estimate the current value of shares, the historical data on the sales of the most popular game in recent years was used- GTA V and multipliers relating to listed companies producing AAA games and several assumptions related to the micro payment model in Cyberpunk 2077, revenues of the CD Projekt sales platform - GOG.com and revenues related to previously created games (The Witcher and Gwent series). The presented information was used to estimate the CD Projekt share price. The model assumes sales of 60 million, which is comparable to the sales of GTA V in the first three years after its release, and more than Witcher 3 sales. Compared to the sales of the Witcher 3 within three years, the new game must sell three times more (in three years since its launch, the game was more 20 million buyers). Another big unknown is the popularity of the multiplayer game in Cyberpunk 2077, currently online games using this model are the highest-grossing productions. The next table presents the best-selling games of recent years, which show how big are investors' expectations about the upcoming release.
Table 16. Sales of games under three years after the released or until
now
Title |
Sales (In mln) |
Initial release data |
Platforms |
Developer |
GTA V |
60 |
17.09.2013 |
Multi |
Rockstar North |
Red Dead Redemption 2 |
34 |
26.10.2018 |
Multi |
Rockstar Studio |
Call
of Duty: Modern Warfare |
30 |
25.10.2019 |
Multi |
Infinity Ward |
Witcher 3: Wild Hunt |
20 |
19.05.2015 |
Multi |
CD Projekt Red |
The
Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim |
Over 20 milion |
11.11.2011 |
Multi |
Bethesda Softworks |
Source: Internet page [accessed 29 November 2020].
With this combination, we are able to show that
investors' expectations regarding the sale are similar to GTA V and the sale in the
first year of the game is to find a similar number of buyers as the flagship
game Activision - Call of Duty: Modern Warfare.
In addition, we are able to show how the expected
revenues from Cyberpunk contrast with the best-selling games of 2019. The table
below lists the top ten best-selling games of 2019.
Table 17. Top ten best- selling games of 2019
Rank |
Title |
Publisher |
Genre |
Revenue in mln usd |
1 |
FIFA 19 |
Electronic Arts Inc. |
Sports |
786 |
2 |
Call
of Duty: Modern Warfare |
Activision Billzard Inc. |
Shooter |
645 |
3 |
GTA V |
Take
Two Interactive Software, Inc. |
Shooter |
595 |
4 |
FIFA 20 |
Electronic Arts Inc. |
Sports |
504 |
5 |
Call
of Duty: Black Ops IIII |
Activision Billzard Inc. |
Shooter |
487 |
6 |
NBA 2K Live |
Take
Two Interactive Software, Inc. |
Sports |
370 |
7 |
Tom Clancy's The Division 2 |
Ubisoft |
Shooter |
370 |
8 |
Tom
Clancy's Rainbow Six: Siege |
Ubisoft |
Shooter |
358 |
9 |
Borderlands 3 |
Take
Two Interactive Software, Inc. |
Shooter |
329 |
10 |
Sims 4 |
Electronic Arts Inc. |
Simulation |
311 |
Source:https://static.tweaktown.com/news/6/9/69666_57_gta-made-half-billion-dollars-2019-3-best-earning-game_full.
[accessed 29 November 2020].
To sum up, Cyberpunk 2077 must sell at the level of
the best-selling games in history to retain the value of shares at the level of
EUR 80-85 per share (PLN 340-360), naturally, enormous interest can help the
company with such a result, if the sales are at a similar level as The Witcher
3 company shares should fall by nearly 60%. In my opinion, the expectations of
investors may turn out to be exaggerated, because as expected the game would
have to sell at the level of the most popular AAA game in history, even a great
commercial success may turn out to be too low, additionally, in each of the
three years, cyberpunk 2077 revenues must classify the game as one of the most
profitable.
It should be remembered that the share price is extremely dynamic, information about the indicators comes from the quotations from Mid-November , additionally the exchange rate changes. In the next post, I will stay on the topic of CD Projekt and conduct sensitivity analysis of the prepared financial model.
The following link is a financial model. CDR_model
[1] CD Projekt wyprzedził PKO BP. Jest największą spółką w Polsce - Bankier.pl [accesed 29 november 2020].
[2] Report: Steam's 30% Cut Is Actually the Industry Standard - IGN [accessed November 17,
2020].
[3]www.tweaktown.com/news/69666/gta-made-half-billion-dollars-2019-3-best-earning-game/index.html [accessed November 17,
2020].
[4] Sensor Tower: Przychody "Gwinta" na urządzeniach iOS wyniosły w listopadzie 0,9 mln USD - Bankier.pl [accessed November 17, 2020].
[5] Wiedźmin 4 - kiedy premiera kolejnej części serii? (benchmark.pl)[accessed November 17, 2020].
[6] TEV is the sum of market capitalization and market value of debt less
the company's cash value.
[7] www.statista.com/statistics/1097608/gta-v-unit-sales-worldwide/ [accesed 28 november 2020].
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