Wednesday, December 9, 2020

CYBERPUNK 2077 - the new king of games or just a great game?

 

Cyberpunk is most probably the most anticipated game release in the gaming community. The enormous success of The Witcher 3 has aroused the hopes of players for a new great series, this time in a futuristic setting. The same, or dare I say higher level of anticipation can be seen among investors hoping for a possibility of high profits. This is being reflected in multiple in developer's share prices over the past few years, which led to a position among the most valuable company in the entire Polish stock exchange[1], coming ahead of such Polish giants as: insurance company PZU, oil giant PKN Orlen or KGHM one of the largest silver and copper producers around the world.

The aim of the paper is to find Cyberpunk 2077's sales expectations, which are reflected in the share price. The article consists of four parts. At the beginning briefly describes the current activities of CD Projekt comparisons with the world's largest developers. Next, I present the listed AAA games companies with basic financial data and stock market multipliers of these companies. This information will be used to determine future multipliers valued company. In the next step, I build CD Projekt's revenues model. Based on the assumptions, I create an revenue model which is the basis of the valuation. The revenue model with multipliers is used to create a multiplier valuation. In conclusion, I confront my Cyberpunk 's sales expectations with the revenues of the best-earning games in 2019 and the sales of the most popular games in recent years.

Introduction

10th of December 2020 has been set as release one of the most anticipated games of recent years will be released. The following post aims to demonstrate how investors evaluate the possible sale of Cyberpunk 2077. Such considerations are possible because CD Projekt's business model, unlike other large developers, focuses on producing one game at a time.

CD Projekt Red is one of the world's most famous producers of AAA, games with the highest budgets, sold on the largest platforms (PlayStation, Xbox, PC, etc.) The scale of its popularity is best showcased by the number of likes on official profiles in social media. The table below shows the number of likes for on official account of each developer.

Table 1. Number of likes on official page in social media in mln.

 

Facebook

Instagram

Twitter

Activision Blizzard

4.4

1.2

2.5

Electronic Arts

4.5

3.1

5.9

Ubisoft Entertainment

5.7

6.5

8.1

CD Projekt Red

0.41

0.66

0.51

Source: Official Accounts of Individual Developers [accessed November 17, 2020].

CD Projekt, unlike its competitors, Table 1, does not have a large number of titles in its portfolio. The following table shows the most important releases of developers in 2020, but it is worth noting that the above companies have several premiers each year, while in the case of CD Projekt Red, its latest projects are:

  - The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt (2015) with additions: Heart of Stone (2015) and Blood and Wine (2016)

- Gwent The Witcher Card Game (2018)

Table 2. Selected release of the largest listed developers in 2020

Company

LTM Revenue

(mln euro)

LTM

Release in 2020

Activision Blizzard

6 523,3

30.09.2020

Call of Duty: Cold War, World of Warcraft: Shadowlands, Call of Duty: Warzone

Electronic Arts

4 760,4

30.09.2020

NBA Live 21, EA Sports UFC 4, NHL 21, FIFA 21, Madden 21,

Ubisoft Entertainment

1 654,3

30.09.2020

Watch Dogs: Legion, Imortals Fenyx Rising, Just Dance 2021, Assassin's Creed Valhalla, Tom Clancy's The Division 2

CD Projekt Red

150,7

30.06.2020

Cyberpunk 2077

Source:www.gameby.pl/premiery-ubisoft-2020, www.thegamer.com/every-announced-ea-game-coming-2020, www.activision.com, [accessed November 17, 2020].

The single CD Projekt release looks modest, but it should be remembered that it is often considered the most anticipated game of the year, coming before such titles as mentioned in the table and e.g. The Last of Us or Doom Eternal.

Comparable entities

To calculate the value of the enterprise using comparable methods, companies involved in the production of AAA games should be selected. The second criterion is listing on the stock exchange, which allows you to obtain information about multiplier. The table below shows 8 listed companies developing AAA games

Table 3. Listed companies developing AAA games.

Company Name

Country

Business Description

Activision Blizzard, Inc.

United States

The company’s key product franchises include Call of Duty, World of Warcraft, Diablo, Hearthstone, Overwatch, and Candy Crush. 

Codemasters Group Holdings plc

United Kingdom

The company’s game portfolio comprise F1 series, GRID, DiRT Rally 2.0, and ONRUSH.

Electronic Arts Inc

United States

The company develops and publishes games and services across various genres primarily under the Battlefield, The Sims, Apex Legends, Need for Speed, and Plants v. Zombies brands; and license games from others, including FIFA, Madden NFL, and Star Wars brands. 

Embracer Group AB (publ)

Sweden

The company’s game catalogue consists of 190 tittles, such as Saints Row, Goat Simulator, Dead Island, Darksiders, Metro, MX vs ATV, Kingdoms of Amalur, TimeSplitters, Satisfactory, Wreckfest, Insurgency, World War Z, and others. The company was formerly known as THQ Nordic AB (publ) and changed its name to Embracer Group AB (publ) in October 2019. 

Paradox Interactive AB (publ)

Sweden

The company game portfolio comprises a lot of titles and brands, including Stellaris, Europa Universalis, Hearts of Iron, Crusader Kings, Cities: Skylines, Surviving Mars, Prison Architect, Magicka, Age of Wonders, and the World of Darkness. 

Square Enix Holdings Co., Ltd.

Japan

The company’s game catalogue consists a lot of games, for instance, such as Final Fantasy Series, Dragon Quest, Kingdom Hearts, Tomb Raider and Deus Ex. The company publishes, distributes, and licenses entertainment content under the SQUARE ENIX and TAITO brands. 

Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc.

United States

The company offers its products under the Rockstar Games and 2K labels. It develops and publishes action/adventure products under the Grand Theft Auto, Max Payne, Midnight Club, and Red Dead Redemption names. The company also develops brands in other genres, including the LA Noire, Bully, Manhunt franchises. In addition, the company publishes various such as the BioShock, Mafia, Sid Meier's Civilization, XCOM series, and Borderlands. Further, it publishes sports simulation titles comprising NBA 2K series,; the WWE 2K professional wrestling series. 

Ubisoft Entertainment SA

France

The company designs and develops software, including scenarios, layouts, and game rules, as well as develops design tools and game engines. Ubisoft Entertainment SA has a strategic partnership with Tencent.

Source: Entities’ websites

CD Projekt's current financial results cannot be compared to the current ratios of comparable companies, because the main driving force behind the quotation of CD Projekt shares are investors' expectations regarding for the popularity of the upcoming game. The table below presents the basic financial data and multipliers. We will use the median in all of the calculations below.

Table 4. Basic financial data of comparable companies

Company Name

Market Capitalization

(mln eur)

Total Enterprise Value (mln eur)

LTM Revenue (mln eur)

LTM EBIT (mln eur)

LTM EBITDA (mln eur)

LTM Net Income (mln eur)

TEV/LTM Revenues (x)

TEV/LTM EBITDA (x)

P/EPS (x)

Activision Blizzard, Inc.

     50 681.1

   47 300.4

       6 523.3

    2 269.5

     2 468.8

  1 884.6

                7,3x

             19,3x

             27,2x

Codemasters Group Holdings plc

806.3

779.8

86.2

19.6

23.4

13.1

9,21x

33,2x

59,4x

Electronic Arts Inc

     29 631.0

    25 578.9

       4 760.4

  1 178.6

     1 308.9

     1 119.0

             5,41x

18,3x

26,9x

Embracer Group AB (publ)

        7 095.2

      7 018.4

           673.2

44.5

164.3

             30.8

             10,2x

41,5x

175,1x

Paradox Interactive AB (publ)

        2 861.8

      2 820.6

           146.1

57.9

66.0

             46.5

             19,0x

40,5x

60,6x

Square Enix Holdings Co., Ltd.

        5 292.0

      4 210.7

       2 523.1

391.6

452.2

           213.4

             1,71x

9,56x

25,4x

Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc.

     14 979.5

    13 114.1

       2 864.0

441.2

503.0

           403.8

             4,61x

24,9x

39,2x

Ubisoft Entertainment SA

        9 812.5

   10 255.3

       1 654.3

113.4

         (15.3) 

       (105.4) 

                6,2x

NM

NM

CD Projekt S.A.

        7 740.7

     7 613.0

           150.7

62.2

63.5

             60.8

             51,0x

120,1x

135,4x

Source: www.investing.com, financial statement of the entities.

The table below shows the values of the multipliers, the multipliers used are based on the historical data from Table 4. 

Table 5. Multipliers

 

EV/Revenue

EV/EBITDA

P/E

NTM

6,0x

20,0x

30,0x

FY+1

5,7x

18,5x

28,0x

FY+2

5,3x

17,0x

26,0x

Source: Own study

In the model, I assumed a minimal decrease in the value of multipliers in the following years, which is to simulate the gradual maturation of the gaming market. I encourage you to use the spreadsheet attached to the post, which allows you to modify the assumptions.

Assumptions

               To calculate the value of the company based on future performance, the need to create financial model. For this, we must make some assumptions that will help us build the foundations for further consideration. The following sections present the assumptions of the income  model. 

1.     Cyberpunk price

The price on the newest consoles will be EUR 69.99 (PS 5 and Xbox Series X), on older consoles the price will equal EUR 59.90 (PS 4 and Xbox One), and on PC the price will be EUR 49.99. Due to the pricing policy, the price of the game will drop by 10% after 12 months from the release and another 15% after another year.

2.     Selling costs

The price of the game in the store is not fully transferred to the game producer, therefore the cost of the sales platform should be subtracted from its price, the industry standard is 30%[2]. The model assumes a 30% reduction in the case of copies intended for consoles and a 20% reduction in the case of copies on a PC. reduction is due to the possibility of selling through its own platform (GOG.com) and the actions of EPIC Games Store, which by aggressive policy lowers costs on the developer's side. In the physical distribution due to higher costs (transport, storage, complaints, etc.), the developer will receive 50% of the original price.

3.     Cyberpunk 2077 revenues

The financial report for 2019 includes a chart with the breakdown of revenues by platform.

Chart 1. Distribution of The Witcher 3 revenue

Source: Report of the management board on the activities of the CD Projekt capital group for 2019, p.52

In the chart above in the report, we see a huge increase in digital distribution compared to physical distribution in recent years. Currently, over 80% of sales are generated through digital distribution channels.

            The model assumes that in the next 12 months, half of the sales will be coming from sales on the PC, but in the following years, consoles will have an advantage, which in 2023 will reach 60% of total revenues. It should be noted, however that in 2020 saw the release of the newest generation of gaming consoles. The model assumed that in the first year only 40% of the copies of the game will be sold to the newest-generation consoles, but in 2023 the latest consoles will take over 90% console sale. It should also distinguish between the distribution of games in two models: the digital and the physical. According to the CD Projekt management report for 2019, 80% of copies of the Witcher 3 were sold via digital platforms. The model assumes further growth of digital distribution to 90% in 2023, further growth will be difficult, because some players like to have physical copies (as in the case of music). 

The table below presents the estimated sales structure for the available platforms for 2021-2023

Table 6. Estimated sales structure for the available platforms for 2021-2023

 

2021

2022

2023

PC

50,0%

45,0%

40,0%

PlayStation 4

18,0%

6,5%

3,5%

Xbox One

12,0%

4,5%

2,5%

PlayStation 5

12,0%

26,0%

31,5%

Xbox Series X

8,0%

18,0%

22,5%

Source: Own study

The above table allows you to calculate the average revenue from the sale of one copy of the game. The table below presents the revenue from the sale of one copy of the game in the years 2021 – 2023.

Table 7. Revenue from the sale of one copy of Cyberpunk 2077.

 

2021

2022

2023

Average revenue per game

33,90 €

36,52 €

31,16 €

Source: Own study

4.     Other income

The model assumes that the company will generate revenues from three additional sources: GOG. com, micropayments in Cyberpunk 2077 and related to the Witcher series and the side game Gwent.

a.    GOG.com revenues

It was assumed that in the next three years GOG.com will generate revenues of EUR 40 million annually, this value coincides with the results of GOG for the last few years.

b.    Witcher and Gwent revenues

Another source of revenues for the company related to the Witcher and Gwent series, assumed that revenues for the next 12 months would be similar to 2019 (53 million euros) and in the next two years they would decline by a quarter each year.

c.     Micropayments in Cyberpunk 2077

The last source of income is the most controversial and strongly influences the final result. Micropayments are an extremely interesting source for generating financial flows. The successes of online games show how profitable this financial model can be[3]. The value of revenues from micropayments is directly related to the popularity of the game and the ability to monetize on player activity. Press information shows that the developers plan to use micropayments in the multiplayer system, while the experience with such  model used in Gwent is a big plus[4].

It is assumed that a single copy  will generate 2.5 euros per year in micropayments, a value similar to the estimated value of micropayments per player for GTA V. The table below shows the calculation of the micropayment value per gamer in GTA V. The planned release of the multiplayer is 2020. In the first year of forecasts do not take into account those.

Table 8. Micropayments in GTA V in 2019

Average sales in 2017-19 (mln)

15

Revenue per unit to developers (usd)

$21,00

GTA V sales revenue in 2019 (mln usd)

315

GTA V micropayments (mln usd)

$280

Copy sold by the end 2019 (mln usd)

115

Micropayments per copy (usd)

$2,43

Source: www.statista.com/statistics/1097608/gta-v-unit-sales-worldwide, www.tweaktown.com/news/69666/gta-made-half-billion-dollars-2019-3-best-earning-game/index.html, www.tweaktown.com/news/69666/gta-made-half-billion-dollars-2019-3-best-earning-game/index.html [accesed 29 november 2020].

            CD ProjectRed will generate revenues from those three sources. The table below shows this summary.

Table 9. Calculation of other revenues in 2021-2023 (in mln euro)

 

2021

2022

2023

GOG.com revenue

40

40

40

Revenue from the Witcher series

53

40

30

Micropayments revenue(mln eur/year)

0

113

150

Total other revenue

93

192

220

Source: Own study

5.     Any new release of the "big" game by the end of 2023 years

All calculations in this article are based on the assumption that no next AAA game will be released by the end of 2023. Naturally, the model assumes the possibility of releasing paid add-ons, as in the case of The Witcher 3. According to the media, the next game will be another part of The Witcher, and its release will probably take place in the years 2024-2025[5].

Calculation

According to markets and financial data, CD Projekt's total enterprise value (TEV[6]) was approximately EUR 7,6 billion and we will compare the sale forecast of the game to this amount. The multipliers used for the comparison with Enterprise Value (EV) will be adjusted for net debt. Net debt is the difference between financial liabilities and cash. In the model, we use data on net debt from the latest report for the first half of 2020.

In addition to the multipliers based on revenues, the text uses multipliers based on EBITDA and net profit, to make the company's results more probable, the company's ratios from 2015-17, i.e. from the period when The Witcher 3 and its additions had its release, were used.

Table 10. CD Projekt's margins in 2015-2017.

 

2015

2016

2017

EBITDA margin

53,4%

52,4%

52,5%

Net profit margin

42,9%

42,9%

43,2%

Source: CD Projekt S.A. Financial statement

Thanks to all the information in the article, we can move on to the final valuation. All data contained in the article are speculative and cannot be treated as an investment recommendation. In the attachment, a spreadsheet has been added that allows you to modify the assumptions yourself.

To calculate the value of the company, we need to calculate the following variables:

1. Revenue

The huge expectations of investors allow us to compare with what is probably the highest-grossing game of recent years: GTA V, according to available data, within three years of its release, the game has sold 60 million copies (32.5 million in 2013, 12.5 million in 2014 and 15 million in 2015[7]). The following data and previous assumptions allow the company to create the following revenue model:

Table 11. CD Projekt's Revenue model

Number of copies (thou.)

32 500

12 500

15 000

Average revenue per one copy

33,90 €

36,52 €

31,16 €

Cyberpunk 2077 revenue (mln Euro)

1 102 €

457 €

467 €

Micropayments revenue (mln euro/year)

0 €

113 €

150 €

GOG.com revenue (mln euro)

40 €

40 €

40 €

Other revenue (mln euro)

53 €

40 €

30 €

Total other revenue (mln euro)

93 €

192 €

220 €

Cyberpunk revenue (mln euro)

1 102 €

569 €

617 €

Total revenue (mln euro)

1 195 €

649 €

687 €

Total number of copies (thou.)

60 000

 

 

Source: Own study

            2. Valuation using multipliers

The multiplier valuation is presented in the tables below.

Table 12. Implied enterprise value with the EV / Revenue multiplier

 

NTM

FY+1

FY+2

Revenue

1 195

649

687

Multiplier

6,0x

5,7x

5,3x

Valuation value

7 168

3 665

3 643

Weight

 1/3

 1/3

 1/3

Weighted average value of the valuation

4 825

Source: Own study

Table 13. Implied enterprise value with the EV / EBITDA multiplier

 

NTM

FY+1

FY+2

Revenue

1 195

649

687

EBITDA margin

53,4%

52,4%

52,5%

EBITDA

638

340

361

Multiplier

20,0x

18,5x

17,0x

Valuation value

12 758

6 291

6 139

Weight

 1/3

 1/3

 1/3

Weighted average value of the valuation

8 396

Source: Own study

Table 14. Implied enterprise value with the P/E multiplier

 

NTM

FY+1

FY+2

Revenue

1 195

649

687

Net profit margin

42,9%

42,9%

43,2%

Net profit

513

278

297

Multiplier

30,0x

28,0x

26,0x

Valuation value

15 380

7 793

7 726

Weight

 1/3

 1/3

 1/3

Weighted average value of the valuation

10 300

Source: Own study

3. Final valuation

Table 15. CD Projekt valuation

Multiplier

EV/Revenue

EV/EBITDA

P/E

Implied Enterprise Value

4 825

8 396

10 300

Net debt

-129

-129

-

Valuation value

4 954

8 525

10 300

Weight

 1/3

 1/3

 1/3

Weighted average value

7 926

Source: Own study

Table 15. Share price

Company value (mln eur)

7 926

Shares number (in mln)

96,12

Share price (in eur)

82,46

Source: Own study

This means that if the sales of Cyberpunk 2077 will be at the level of GTA V sales in the first three years from the release, the value of the shares will be slightly over 85 EUR (approx. 360 PLN), i.e. the value oscillating around the last quotations.

 Conclusion

The above article, aims to find investors' expectations for the sale of Cyberpunk 2077 within three years of its release. To estimate the current value of shares, the historical data on the sales of the most popular game in recent years was used- GTA V and multipliers relating to listed companies producing AAA games and several assumptions related to the micro payment model in Cyberpunk 2077, revenues of the CD Projekt sales platform - GOG.com and revenues related to previously created games (The Witcher and Gwent series). The presented information was used to estimate the CD Projekt share price. The model assumes sales of 60 million, which is comparable to the sales of GTA V in the first three years after its release, and more than Witcher 3 sales. Compared to the sales of the Witcher 3 within three years, the new game must sell three times more (in three years since its launch, the game was more 20 million buyers). Another big unknown is the popularity of the multiplayer game in Cyberpunk 2077, currently online games using this model are the highest-grossing productions. The next table presents the best-selling games of recent years, which show how big are investors' expectations about the upcoming release.

Table 16. Sales of games under three years after the released or until now

Title

Sales (In mln)

Initial release data

Platforms

Developer

GTA V

60

17.09.2013

Multi

Rockstar North

Red Dead Redemption 2

34

26.10.2018

Multi

Rockstar Studio

Call of Duty: Modern Warfare

30

25.10.2019

Multi

Infinity Ward

Witcher 3: Wild Hunt

20

19.05.2015

Multi

CD Projekt Red

The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim

Over 20 milion

11.11.2011

Multi

Bethesda Softworks

Source: Internet page [accessed 29 November 2020].

With this combination, we are able to show that investors' expectations regarding the sale are similar to GTA V and the sale in the first year of the game is to find a similar number of buyers as the flagship game Activision - Call of Duty: Modern Warfare.

In addition, we are able to show how the expected revenues from Cyberpunk contrast with the best-selling games of 2019. The table below lists the top ten best-selling games of 2019.

Table 17. Top ten best- selling games of 2019

Rank

Title

Publisher

Genre

Revenue in mln usd

1

FIFA 19

Electronic Arts Inc.

Sports

786

2

Call of Duty: Modern Warfare

Activision Billzard Inc.

Shooter

645

3

GTA V

Take Two Interactive Software, Inc.

Shooter

595

4

FIFA 20

Electronic Arts Inc.

Sports

504

5

Call of Duty: Black Ops IIII

Activision Billzard Inc.

Shooter

487

6

NBA 2K Live

Take Two Interactive Software, Inc.

Sports

370

7

Tom Clancy's The Division 2

Ubisoft

Shooter

370

8

Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six: Siege

Ubisoft

Shooter

358

9

Borderlands 3

Take Two Interactive Software, Inc.

Shooter

329

10

Sims 4

Electronic Arts Inc.

Simulation

311

Source:https://static.tweaktown.com/news/6/9/69666_57_gta-made-half-billion-dollars-2019-3-best-earning-game_full. [accessed 29 November 2020].

To sum up, Cyberpunk 2077 must sell at the level of the best-selling games in history to retain the value of shares at the level of EUR 80-85 per share (PLN 340-360), naturally, enormous interest can help the company with such a result, if the sales are at a similar level as The Witcher 3 company shares should fall by nearly 60%. In my opinion, the expectations of investors may turn out to be exaggerated, because as expected the game would have to sell at the level of the most popular AAA game in history, even a great commercial success may turn out to be too low, additionally, in each of the three years, cyberpunk 2077 revenues must classify the game as one of the most profitable.

It should be remembered that the share price is extremely dynamic, information about the indicators comes from the quotations from Mid-November , additionally the exchange rate changes. In the next post, I will stay on the topic of CD Projekt and conduct sensitivity analysis of the prepared financial model. 

The following link is a financial model. CDR_model



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